Mr. Shin predicts, in short, that:
- Korean Growth Rate in 2011 will be 3.6%. This "low growth" rate will be caused by the European debt issues, a slowing economy in Europe, and that the Korean government is unable to further stimulate the economy because of a high (recently increasing) sovereign debt and the inability to consider quantitative easing because of, already, high inflation.
- Korean Private Growth in Consumption will increase by 2.7 percent and Consume Prices will increase by 3.4 percent from 4.4 percent. This lower than normal consumption growth is caused by "slower income growth, high inflation and an economic slowdown."
- Korean Facilities Investment will grow to 4.5 percent (6.7 percent in 2011). "Strong exports of information technology products and automobiles have contributed to a favorable investment climate, but both products will inevitably face declining outbound shipments going forward."
- Korean Export Growth will decrease to 11.9 in 2012 from 20.9 percent today. Same basic reasons as above.
- Korean Won will strengthen to 1,060 to the U.S. dollars.
What do you think?